John Smart’s Four Futures
In Dator’s original framework, he proposed four possible futures: Growth, Discipline, Collapse, and Transformation. These futures represent different trajectories that society could take based on various factors and circumstances. Now, John Smart expanded upon this framework and adapted it to better reflect our ever-evolving world.
Smart’s adaptation of Dator’s four futures introduces the concept of “accelerating change” as a driving force behind the different futures. He argues that technological advancements and their rapid pace of development have a significant impact on shaping our future.
Smart’s four futures adaptation includes:
- Growth: This future envisions a world where technological progress continues at an exponential rate, leading to significant advancements in various fields. It is characterized by innovation, abundance, and a focus on expanding human potential.
- Constraint: In this future, the rapid pace of technological change becomes overwhelming, leading to constraints and challenges. Society faces resource scarcity, environmental degradation, and social unrest. The focus shifts towards sustainability and resilience.
- Collapse: This future explores the possibility of societal collapse due to the inability to cope with the consequences of accelerating technological change. It highlights the potential risks and vulnerabilities that could arise if we fail to navigate the challenges effectively.
- Transformation: Here, Smart envisions a future where society successfully navigates the complexities of accelerating change. It involves the conscious and deliberate transformation of our systems and structures to adapt to the rapid advancements. This future emphasizes the need for adaptability, foresight, and collective action.
It’s important to note that these futures are not deterministic, but rather represent different possibilities based on the trajectory of technological change and societal responses.
I hope this explanation sheds some light on John Smart’s adaptation of Dator’s four futures. Tomorrow we’ll explore some examples.