The Domino effect: North Korea vs. Asia

Big News…

If you all aren’t keeping up on news and, I don’t mean the war in Iraq, you should know that tensions are running high, really high, over North Korea‘s Missile Test today. My last news report was about Abe’s new post as Prime Minister. Since then, a series of non-stop actions have been taking place since Abe took office. From various sources I’ll try to give you a time line. These series of events plague the Japanese news and are pretty remarkable to experience.

Here is what has been going on thus far…

Tuesday October 3rd:
On Tuesday, Abe heatedly denied Japanese Communist Party leader Kazuo Shii’s (right) remark [that during a Diet session in 1997, Abe demanded “a modification” to the apology to wartime sex slaves who were forced to serve Japanese soldiers] that he was trying to change the pacifist Constitution to permit the Self-Defense Forces to go to war.

“Criticism that (our) purpose for revising the Constitution is to create a country that will engage in war overseas is completely off the target,” Abe said, raising his voice.

But he failed to give any details about how he intended to revise the charter’s Article 9, which prohibits collective defense and limits Japan‘s use of force only to self-defense.

North Korea says it plans nuclear test
North Korea‘s statement Tuesday that it will conduct a nuclear test “in the future” threatens to intensify the international standoff over its missile and atomic weapons programs and upset the already fragile balance in the region, according to analysts… A test would have “a significant impact” on public opinion in Japan and South Korea, perhaps fueling the nascent debate in Japan over whether it should develop nuclear weapons of its own.

Such an event would likely harden the U.S. position on the nuclear issue, as well as public opinion in Japan as well as in South Korea, and spark worries in China about its neighbors building up their militaries in response to a nuclear North Korea, analysts say.

“At the moment, North Korea is only saying that it has nuclear weapons. But if a nuclear test is carried out, there would no longer be any doubt as to whether North Korea is a nuclear power,” a Western diplomat in Beijing said.

“It would become a completely different ballgame.”

Wednesday October 4th:
Abe noncommittal on war stance
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe acknowledged Japan‘s wartime aggression but avoided giving his own opinion on the issue while speaking Tuesday at a Lower House plenary session. “I believe that politicians should be humble about speaking about war or history . . . because a politician’s statements hold political and diplomatic meaning,” Abe said during the Diet session.

U.S. hails summits
The United States on Monday welcomed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to visit China and South Korea in an effort to mend strained ties. “This is really a matter for those countries to work out and to discuss on their own,” State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey said. “We definitely want to see Japan have positive relations with all its neighbors, including (South) Korea and China.” Noting that China, South Korea and Japan cooperated with the U.S. in having the U.N. Security Council adopt a resolution condemning North Korea‘s July missile launches.

Sunday October 8th:

China, Japan oppose N Korea nuke test
Japan and China agreed on Sunday that a North Korean nuclear test “cannot be tolerated.” [Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe also urged the North [Koreans] to heed the joint message. The common ground emerged as a South Korean politician said a North Korean nuclear test was not imminent and that the North was ready to drop its plans if Washington engaged in direct talks.

Abe, whose country has felt increasingly threatened by North Korea‘s missile and nuclear programs, promised to put the nuclear-test threat at the top of his agenda in summit meetings in China. He meets with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun in Seoul on Monday.

Nuke test unacceptable

The Japanese leader said he and Chinese President Hu Jintao found the prospect of a North Korean nuclear
test unacceptable. “We need to prevent a nuclear North Korea,” Abe told reporters after meeting with Hu. “We saw eye-to-eye that North Korea‘s announcement of a nuclear test cannot be tolerated because it is a great threat to East Asia and the international community.”

Abe suggested that North Korea should pay attention to the agreement, coming as it did in a summit between two often estranged countries, one of which, China, is an ally of
North Korea.

China, I must assume, has major influence,” Abe said.

Monday October 9th:

Abe, Hu agree to push ‘strategic’ ties
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (left) agreed Sunday with Chinese President Hu Jintao (right) that the two nations will push forward a “strategic” partnership, breaking the ice in a diplomatic relationship that in recent years has grown increasingly cold.

Their meeting was the first summit between the two Asian powers in more than a year. They shared common ground on the North Korean nuclear crisis. A joint statement released after the summit stated that “both sides expressed deep concern about recent situations over the Korean Peninsula, including the issue of nuclear tests.”

“President Hu and I agreed that a North Korean nuclear test would be a threat to East Asia as well as the rest of the world and that we cannot accept it,” Abe said at a post summit news conference. “This agreement sends a strong message to North Korea.”

Monday at around 10:36 a.m.:

North Korea Conducts ‘Historic’ Nuclear Test

North Korea carried out their first-ever nuclear test on Monday at around 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT on Sunday), putting to rest any doubt that the country has been working to back up its claims of working towards nuclear capabilities.

According to the communist regime’s official news agency, the test was executed safely with no harmful effects, saying that it “was carried out under a scientific consideration and careful calculation.” The North Korean news agency said that the “historic event” would “contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.” President’s Roh Moo-hyun’s spokesperson, Yoon Tae-young, said that “Related countries are in consultations on the issue,” and that Roh had called an emergency meeting to talk about responses to the news.

Shinzo Abe, Japan‘s new prime minister, arrived in Seoul on Monday in order to talk with President Roh about the damaged relations between the two respective nations as well as the recent nuclear threat North Korea made last Tuesday.

Japan’s U.N. ambassador Kenzo Oshima, who leads the Security Council this month, said that “Should North Korea ignore calls of the international community, the Security Council will act consistent with its responsibility under the Charter of the United Nations.” The Security Council is expected to discuss measures to be taken.

North Korea has shown that they are not to be underestimated or scoffed at. Though their missile tests proved to be “unsuccessful,” and though they are not believed to possess the capability of reaching the U.S. with nuclear arms, it seems that the U.S. and the U.N. can no longer afford to rely on doubt to further delay significant action against North Korea.

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It seems that the ball is rolling towards something intense. North Korea is acting against everything its neighbors are demanding. How this pans out is up to China’s Leader Hu and Japan‘s New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (who has been on the job a total of 15 days).

Out of this bazaar series of events comes here is some questions to think about:

1st: What is Korea‘s intentions? Is it power, money, or prestige?

2nd: For a over 5 years relations between Japan-China and Japan-S.Korea have been poor. However, in order to send a united message to N.Korea Japan, China, and S.Korea all need to work together. Will N.Korea’s missile test bring the three North Asian Power players back to the table?

3rd: Will Shinzo Abe push to revise the charter’s Article 9, which prohibits collective defense and limits Japan‘s use of force only to self-defense?

4th: Can Abe and his conservative party (The LDP) rally U.S.-Japan Support for an offensive position against N.Korea.

5th: How is this going to effect, nationally, political views of North Korea and will Tokyo make drastic changes in national security (like the U.S. has with the patriot act, FAA, etc.)?

I know first hand that it’s on the news and has my host family worried. It’s big news and it’s on everyone’s mind. My dad asked me earlier how Japan feels about Iraq and the war over there it’s not in the news here, the issue is Korea and their recent aggressive behaviors. In President Bush’s first term two planes hit the World Trade Center in New York and it changed everything… Now Korea threatens to test Nuclear Missiles in Shinzo Abe’s first term, there’s a chance that such an event could change Japan as 9/11 changed the U.S.

to be continued…

~J out.

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